Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022

400 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE APPROACHING GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS...

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA

AND PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...26.6N 75.7W

ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND

ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of

Florida north of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass. The Tropical Storm

Warning has also been extended northward from Altamaha Sound Georgia

to South Santee River South Carolina.

The Hurricane Watch from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte

Vedra Beach Florida has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the

northwestern Bahamas

* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern

Bahamas

* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South

Carolina

* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida

* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida

* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

* Anclote River Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in

the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions

to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern

coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was

located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 75.7 West. Nicole is

moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn

toward the west is expected today, followed by a turn toward the

northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On

the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the

northwestern Bahamas this morning, move near or over those islands

by midday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the

hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole's center is then expected to

move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia

Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday

and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Nicole is forecast

to become a hurricane near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a

hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida tonight. Nicole

is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the

southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely

to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night over the

Mid-Atlantic states.

Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend

outward up to 460 miles (740 km) especially to the north of the

center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph

(81 km/h) were reported on Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas during

the past couple of hours. A sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) was

recently reported at the Dania Pier in southeastern Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the

northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected within

the hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions

are also occurring along portions of the east coast of Florida and

will spread northward within the warning area through Georgia and

South Carolina today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected

within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday

morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane

watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within

the warning area along the west coast of Florida by this evening or

tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the

St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South

Carolina...2 to 4 ft

* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown

Florida...2 to 4 ft

* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft

* Anclote River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft

* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1

to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above

normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern

Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and

can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to

your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday night:

* Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions

of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8

inches.

* Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western

Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:

2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

* Northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of New York: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed

river rises on the St. John’s River, across the Florida Peninsula

today into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread

northward across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New

York Thursday into Friday night, where flooding impacts will be

possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through

Thursday across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern

South Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern

Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern

United States coast during the next several days. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

Operation Stormwatch Savannah

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