Three options as to where Elsa goes next--and we are in all three of them


ELSA's current stats: the Tropical Storm has max winds at 60 mph, moving WNW still at 13 mph, now 50 miles north of Kingston, pressure holding at 1009 mb. Tropical Storm WARNINGS have now been issued for the Lower Keys, Tropical Storm WATCHES for the Upper Keys and for the Southwest Florida coast up to Bonita Beach.  

Tropical Storm ELSA is passing just north of Jamaica with better organization and the potential to strengthen. None of the intensity models think that we will see a hurricane again, but that's possible if the track keeps ELSA just south of Cuba before crossing into the Florida Straits later tonight, or if ELSA stays over the Eastern Gulf longer up the West Coast of Florida Monday/Tuesday.

None of the intensity models think that we will see a hurricane again, but that's possible if the track keeps ELSA just south of Cuba before crossing into the Florida Straits later tonight, or if ELSA stays over the Eastern Gulf longer up the West Coast of Florida Monday/Tuesday.

And that's the problem: WHERE? The consensus is for some kind of storm to cross Cuba with only three real options:

 1) heading up the West Coast of Florida making landfall sometime Tuesday and tracking across Florida into SE Georgia, riding parallel to the Georgia Coast into South Carolina;

 2) heading more quickly into Florida, maybe near Tampa and riding up the Peninsula tracking right along the Georgia coast into South Carolina;

 3) heading into South Florida and moving back out into the Atlantic riding up the East Coast of Florida, missing Georgia and making another landfall in South Carolina.

The favored option by most of the models is Option 2 (or some version of that scenario). The American model, which has been right so far, favors Option 1. The next 24 hours hold the keys to the Keys on Monday.

Either way, expect a BIG rain event with tropical-storm-force winds. 

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 17

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021

1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.7N 76.8W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from

Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from

Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of

Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the

provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the

province of Artemisa.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,

Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa

Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana

* Jamaica

* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,

Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

* The Cuban province of Artemisa

* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef

* Florida Bay

* The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the

progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be

required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 76.8 West. Elsa is

moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn

toward the northwest is expected today or tonight. On the

forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near Jamaica and portions

of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early

Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba

and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the

Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or

over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches

the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is

forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa

emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of

Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica

today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane

conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba

later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in

the warning area in the Florida Keys by late Monday. Tropical

storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman

Islands by tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys and the southwest

coast of Florida by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal

tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore

flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally

dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving

inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following

heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft

Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm

total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15

inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered

flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10

inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This

will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5

inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and

Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches

with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible,

which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast

of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or

two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida

early next week. Please consult products from your local weather

office for more details.


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