Chatham and Beaufort Coastal Counties not out of the woods yet


The National Weather Service has issued this graphic to show that counties east of the storm need to take great caution when it comes to winds and rain:

As of 2 p.m. Tuesday, July 6, 2021, the National Hurricane Center is projecting Elsa will develop into a hurricane before making landfall along the north Gulf Coast of Florida early Wednesday, July 7, 2021. 

A tropical storm watch remains in effect through Thursday morning.

The storm is expected to move northeast over Florida and Georgia and could reach Beaufort County by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Beaufort County residents and guests may see 3 to 5 inches of rain Wednesday into Thursday, as well as tropical storm force winds between 39 and 57 mph, raising the potential for downed trees and power lines.

Low-lying areas, especially near the direct coast, may experience flooding.

ELSA is now forecast to hold on to Tropical Storm status longer into Georgia, with now 40 mph winds over Statesboro at 2am Thursday morning, falling to a Depression after that into South Carolina. That puts the coastal areas on the right side of the storm, expecting heavier rains, gustier winds, and a little better chance of isolated tornadoes (even with the loss of any daytime heating during the overnight hours).

And when should we expect the heaviest rains?

New information shows heavier rains will start around 1pm tomorrow. there will be two heavily squally periods: 2:30-5 and again 7-9pm.

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021

500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE

NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.8N 83.0W

ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Georgia

from the Mouth of St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Seven

Mile Bridge has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla

River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry

Tortugas

* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key

* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee

River

* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to

Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South

Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning

Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening

situation. Persons located within these areas should take all

necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water

and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow

evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12

to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at

risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge

Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast

should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is

moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a generally

northward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the

north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster

northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa

will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later

today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the

north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the

southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making

landfall. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late

Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)

from the center. Buoy 42023 recently measured a peak 1-minute

sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) gusting to 78 mph (126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane

Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the

warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical

storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central

Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas

tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are

expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast

by late Wednesday and are possible in the watch area in Georgia and

South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to

4 ft

Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft

Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft

Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south

of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.

Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain

areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and

impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the

Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up

to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable

flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate

river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum

totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in

considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to

isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South

Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches

will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban

flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern

Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches

Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated

flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the

Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday

across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South

Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas

and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida

Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office

for more details.


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