After strengthening to hurricane status, Elsa is back as a Tropical Storm


After making landfall the storm has dropped back to 65mph winds and is once again a Tropical Storm.

Our area is now under a Tropical Storm Warning as we expect 30-40 mph winds with gusts to 55mph

There is also a possibility of storm surge up to 2 feet above ground.

As for rain, we anticipate 2-4 inches with locally higher levels along the coast.

The situation is also favorable for development of tornadoes.

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021

500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF

FLORIDA...

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS

THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.5N 83.5W

ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Florida has been

replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning south of Chassahowitzka to

Egmont Key.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of

Englewood.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the coasts of North

Carolina and Virginia from Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague,

Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River,

including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee

River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to Englewood

* West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to

Ochlockonee River

* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South

Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague,

Virginia

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning

Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening

situation. Persons located within these areas should take all

necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water

and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow

evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and

property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at

risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge

Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic coast,

southeastern New England, and the Canadian Maritimes should

monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Elsa is

moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general

northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A

turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or

tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.

On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the

west coast of Florida this morning, then make landfall along the

north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon.

The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic

United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until

landfall later today. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane warning

area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to

spread northward across the western Florida Peninsula into the

Florida Big Bend region in the warning area today. Tropical storm

conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the

Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina

coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are

possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic states by Thursday

night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to

4 ft

Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft

Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft

Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts

and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to

6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today,

which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along

with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South

Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches

will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban

flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern

Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight

through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban

flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated

totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This

could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across west-central to

north Florida into this afternoon. The tornado threat will continue

later today through tonight across southeast Georgia and eastern

South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern

Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida

Keys and the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office for more

details.


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