Tropical Storm Elsa's track moves a little to the west (inland)


ELSA is back to a tropical storm, still headed due north paralleling the West Florida coast with 65 mph winds. Midday landfall now expected in the Big Bend and Hurricane WARNINGS remain just in case ELSA wobbles and hits another spike in winds. THE RESULT IS A TRACK FARTHER INLAND this morning.

All of the Georgia and South Carolina coast remains under a Tropical Storm WARNING but all of the coasts are now CLEAR of the cone of uncertainty. That means we will not deal with the core of the storm, but certainly it's effects. Now ELSA, as a tropical storm, will pass between Augusta and Savannah at 0200 Thursday morning.

That pushes all our timing back several hours.

It still means we must be WEATHER ALERT for up to 5" of rain.

The timing and location now lessens the threat of tornadoes.

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 29A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021

800 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.2N 83.6W

ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued

south of the Middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from the Middle of Longboat Key to the

Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee

River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to the Middle

of Longboat Key

* West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to

Ochlockonee River

* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South

Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague,

Virginia

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,

please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning

Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening

situation. Persons located within these areas should take all

necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water

and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow

evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at

risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge

Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic coast,

southeastern New England, and the Canadian Maritimes should

monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS

Doppler radars near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa

is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general

northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A

turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or

tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.

On the forecast track, Elsa will make landfall along the north

Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon. The

storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic

United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Little change in strength is likely until landfall later

today. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)

from the center. A C-MAN station at Cedar Key, Florida, recently

measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (66

km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane

Hunter observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions could still occur in the hurricane

warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue

along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical

storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area

along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South

Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm

conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic states

by Thursday night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Aucilla River...3 to 5 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...2

to 4 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Charlotte

Harbor...1 to 3 ft

Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft

Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts

and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to

6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today,

which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along

with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South

Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches

will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban

flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern

Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight

through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban

flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated

totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This

could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across west-central to

north Florida into this afternoon. The tornado threat will continue

later today through tonight across southeast Georgia and eastern

South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern

Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the west

coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office for more details.


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